The Westminster Bear

For those of us who prefer politics to be “policy over personality”, this week brought a big win. Angela Rayner, deputy leader of the Labour party, has been entirely cleared by Greater Manchester Police, HMRC, and Stockport Council of wrongdoing in the process of selling her house in 2015. The investigation into the sale was started in response to complaints made by Tory MP James Daly and so it was seen by many as an attempt to smear Rayner.

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“Why Sunak is taking a gamble by calling the election early” is how The Times put it in their article today. And that seemingly is the sentiment of many, including our sources suggest of not a small number of Tory MPs. But Rishi is not one to take big risks, and The Bear doesn’t think this is an exception. If one was sitting in the office of No 10, we recon a July election looks a lot like playing safe.

If one is to suggest that an election in the autumn would have been a better call, one would have to think there was at least a chance that things would improve for the Conservatives. However there is very few indicators to suggest that. The obvious argument is that you allow more time for something, anything to move the needle. But Rishi has been trying that for all of his time in office! The PM’s policy focusses; the NHS, the economy, small boats; have been hitting exactly where the polling suggests that voters might return to the party if they were successful, but none have had a real impact. In fact, the poll gap has been fairly consistently increasing.

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